Tinubu’s Two-Year Economic Report Card: Inflation, Debt & the Road Ahead
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marked his second year in office with a bold declaration: Nigeria is on a path to economic stability. While citizens continue to battle rising costs, official numbers tell a different story one of gradual progress, tighter fiscal discipline, and an administration doubling down on bold reforms.
But has this turnaround really taken root? Here’s how the reforms are reshaping Nigeria’s financial landscape, and what it means for you whether you’re managing a business, investing, or simply trying to stay afloat.
Economic Fallout: Can Inflation Be Tamed?
Let’s talk numbers: In April 2025, inflation dropped to 23.71%, down from 24.23% in March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This may seem like a minor dip, but in the fight against economic chaos, it’s a signal that Tinubu’s policies are starting to bite.
One major move? The termination of Ways and Means financing a fiscal loophole that enabled unchecked borrowing from the Central Bank. Cutting it off helped stop inflationary bleeding, while also giving state-owned NNPC a new lease of life. Once drained by subsidies, it’s now a net contributor to national revenue.
Legal Shakeups: Where Policy Meets Transparency
From a governance perspective, Tinubu’s administration has tried to walk the talk. The fiscal deficit shrank from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024, and revenue exceeded ₦6 trillion in Q1 2025 a record high.
This shift is anchored in one core legal strategy: public financial transparency. By making the budget process and revenue reports public, the government is trying to rebuild trust and attract serious investors. And it’s working global investors are watching.
Political Power Shifts: Reform or Risk?
Tinubu isn’t just tweaking policies; he’s trying to restructure Nigeria’s economy. Oil rig counts have jumped by 400%, and foreign investments in the oil and gas sector now exceed $8 billion.
But reform comes with friction. While the elite may cheer economic realignment, the average person is still paying more for bread, fuel, and electricity. If real purchasing power doesn’t return soon, political risk could be the next fallout.
Debt Management: Playing Chess with Trillions
Nigeria’s public debt hit ₦87.38 trillion in mid-2023. But it’s not all doom and gloom. The government:
- Cleared its IMF debt
- Grew external reserves from $4 billion in 2023 to $23 billion by end-2024
- Slashed the debt service-to-revenue ratio from 100% to under 40%
These numbers signal fiscal responsibility. Yet, the debt-to-GDP ratio sits around 53%, thanks to FX rate swings. The challenge ahead? Keep servicing debt without killing growth.
Future Outlook: Will Tinubu Hit 15% Inflation by December?
Tinubu is aiming for a 15% inflation rate by December 2025. It’s a lofty goal. Whether or not it’s reached depends on:
- Oil prices
- Global market stability
- Nigeria’s export capacity
- And frankly, whether government revenue keeps pace with the demands of 200 million people
Financial Juggernut Insight: Learn from the Macros
Tinubu’s reform drive teaches one core lesson: economic progress needs discipline, transparency, and time. Whether you’re managing a fintech app, building a savings plan, or scaling a small business monitoring macro trends like inflation, debt, and government policies is no longer optional.
